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中文摘要：
针对燃气管道第三方破坏事故复杂的特点,基于层次分析和模糊数学的理论,计算燃气管道第三方破坏风险失效的可能性。全面识别城镇燃气管道第三方破坏事故的危害因素,构建包含56个基本事件的燃气管道第三方破坏故障树。利用模糊集合隶属函数,计算燃气管道发生第三方破坏事故基本事件的模糊概率。利用改进的层次分析法,得出各专家权重并修正各专家的评估意见,计算管道第三方破坏失效的可能性。以某大型省会城市燃气管道为例进行验证分析,证明该方法的风险评价结果与实际情况相符,可为燃气公司安全风险防控提供依据。
英文摘要：
Aiming at the characteristics of complexity for gas pipeline accidents due to third party damage,the possibility of gas pipeline failure due to the risk by third party damage was calculated based on the theories of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The hazard factors of third party damage accidents for urban gas pipeline were identified comprehensively,and a fault tree of third party damage for gas pipeline was constructed,which included 56 basic events. The fuzzy probability of basic events were calculated by using the fuzzy set membership function. The weights of each expert were determined and the evaluation opinions of each expert were revised by using the improved analytic hierarchy process method,then the possibility of gas pipeline failure due to third party damage was calculated. The validation analysis was conducted by taking the urban gas pipeline in a large provincial capital city as example,and it showed that the risk evaluation structure of this method was in line with the actual situation. It can provide basis for the prevention and control of safety risk in gas company.
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