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中文摘要：
为完善事故致因建模的基础理论体系,从微观、中观与宏观3个层面归纳国内外现有的50余种事故致因模型,并以＂点-线-面-体＂为主线论述事故致因模型的立体网状结构体系。基于此,从方法学的视角论述事故致因建模的理论基础,并提炼相似比较法、概率统计法等5种一般建模方法。最后分析新形势下事故致因模型及其建模方法的发展趋势。研究结果系统的梳理与归纳了现有事故致因模型及其结构体系,完善了事故致因建模的方法论,可为事故致因建模的研究与实践提供基础理论指导。
英文摘要：
In order to improve the basic theory system of accident- causing modeling,more than fifty existing accident- causing models were generalized from three levels,which are micro- level,meso- level,and macro- level. Then,the stereoscopic network structure system of accident- causing model was analyzed with ＂ point- line- area- body＂ as principal line.Based on this,the theoretical basis of accident- causing modeling was discussed from the perspective of methodology,and five general modeling methods were extracted,such as similarity- comparison method,probability- statistics method,etc.Finally,the development trend of accident- causing model and its modeling methods under new situation were analyzed. The results summarized the existing accident- causing models and its structural system systematically,improved the methodology of accident- causing modeling,which can provide basic theoretical guidance for the research and practice of accident- causing modeling.
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