中文摘要：

以系统动力学模型为框架，提出了以预测平均值和预测误差标准差为基础确定订货量的库存控制策略，并以库存服务水平和库存成本为目标，对所提出的库存策略中的政策性参数进行了组合优化。研究结果表明，无论需求的特征如何，对于二级供应链分散库存模式和定期订货系统，本文所提出的以指数平滑预测法为基础的库存控制策略都具有较好的适用性，并可以通过政策性参数的合理组合达到满意的绩效目标。本文所建立的模型和仿真过程具有良好的可理解性和可操作性，因此具有较好的应用前景。

英文摘要：

Based on the principles of system dynamics, this paper puts forward an inventory controlling policy which uses estimated mean value and estimated standard deviation of errors to determine order quantity. In the meanwhile, the paper makes a combinatorial analysis of all the policy parameters involved in this inventory strategy, in order to optimize inventory service level and inventory cost. It is found in the paper that the inventory policy based on exponential smoothing prediction is very applicable to the two-stage supply chain with decentralized inventory and periodic review, regardlesa of the characteristics of demand. Through the policy, satisfactory inventory performance can always be achieved by way of an optimal combination of policy parameters. In addition, the model and simulation described in the paper are highly understandable and practicable, and thus have a very good prospect of application.