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中文摘要：
由FAMA等学者开创的有效性理论主要针对资本市场,其理论及实证检验的发展使得关于资本市场的认识和理解得到不断深化,有助于进一步去规范金融资本市场。将市场有效性理论引入电力市场研究中,目的同样在于通过对电力市场有效性的分析加深对电力市场现状的了解,以便为今后电力市场的改革与发展提供借鉴。首先通过资本与电力市场的比较分析,提出电力市场有效性的概念并建立评估模型与指标体系,通过综合应用时间序列分析、DEA以及模糊综合评价等方法,对我国现阶段电力市场有效性进行简单评价,分析结果表明我国电力市场目前基本处于弱势有效状态。
英文摘要：
Efficient market theory,put forword by Fama and other scholars,focus on captial market mainly.The development of this theory in theoretical and empirical examination helps to understande and standardize the financial capital market.In this paper,this theory is introduced to the power market with the same purpose,that is to deep the understanding of electricity market through the analysis of the effectiveness of the electricity market,so as to provide a reference for the future reform and development of power market.Through the comparative analysis between capital market with power market,this paper presents the concept of the electricity market,assessment model and index system fristly.Then,evaluates the effectiveness of China＇s current electricity market by comprehensive application of time series analysis,DEA and fuzzy evaluation.The analysis result shows that China＇s power market is basically in a weak active state.
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