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中文摘要：
研究现有电网售电情况，对售电量进行分析和预测，从而可以对有限的电力资源进行有效分配。介绍了自回归单整移动平均模型及季节AR IMA模型的基本原理，以华北电网2005年1月-2008年4月的月度售电量为基础，运用季节AR IMA模型进行分析，实证结果表明，该方法对售电量的短期预测有较高的预测精度。
英文摘要：
Studying and forecasting the electricity sales accurately can help allocate the limited power resource effectively. The seasonal ARIMA model was used to study North China Power Grid＇s electricity sales based on the Grid＇s monthly sales data from Jan. 2005 to April 2008, and the results proved that the model was a short-term sales forecasting approach with high precision.
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