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中文摘要：
为了解决我国各个地区电力需求区域性、结构性波动的问题,保持国民经济和区域经济的持续健康与又快又好发展,创新性地将区域电力负荷中长期预测作为一个系统研究,并从四个方面对其复杂性进行分析。首先描述区域电力需求的系统构成,然后分析区域中长期电力负荷预测的影响因素和复杂性特征,最后提出区域电力负荷中长期预测复杂性测度模型。结论表明,区域电力负荷中长期预测是一个复杂系统,提出解决区域中长期电力负荷预测复杂性问题需要从系统整体出发的思路。
英文摘要：
In order to solve the problem of regional and structural fluctuations of the power demand,and maintain health and better development of national economic and regional economic, regional electrical load long-term forecasting is viewed as a system,and the complexity of the system is analyzed from four perspectives.Firstly,the system structure of regional power demand is described. Second,actors and complex characteristics of the system are analyzed.The last the complexity measure model of regional electrical load long-term forecasting is proposed.Conclusions show that regional electrical load long-term forecasting is a complex system and solution to the complexity of regional electrical load long-term forecasting should begin with the idea of overall system.
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