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中文摘要：
针对电抗器的特高压绝缘、局部过热、振动和噪声这3个问题,采用5级健康状态诊断法,并充分考虑电抗器预防性试验数据及其变化量。首先建立评估电抗器健康状态的分层模型,通过该模型评估电抗器的历史、当前状态,然后通过无偏GM（1,1）模型预测电抗器的未来状态,并确定分层模型中电抗器各个参数的阈值和分值,最终建立基于贝叶斯网络的电抗器健康诊断模型。实例验证了所提模型的正确性和可行性。
英文摘要：
Five-level health diagnosis method is applied to detect three reactor problems：UHV insulation,local overheating and vibration noise,which considers the preventive test data of reactor and their variations.A layered model is established for evaluating the historic and current health status of reactor,and its future status is predicted with the unbiased GM（1,1） model.The threshold value and score of each reactor parameter are determined and the reactor health diagnosis model based on Bayesian network is finally established.Its validity and feasibility are verified by examples.
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