近年来困扰中国经济发展的“民工荒”现象,一方面表明了过去对劳动力供给总量和结构在认识上的不全面,为“劳动力无限供给论”敲了警钟;另一方面也揭示了城乡劳动力市场分割,劳动要素无法自由流动和有效配置的现状。劳动市场的分割,使得劳动者无法形成稳定的制度预期,缺乏加强自身劳动技能、完善人力资本积累的意愿,并采取“候乌式”的流动就业模式;同时,企业在面对具有“高度流动性”的就业人群时,同样缺乏投入资源实现产业结构调整或升级的动力和可能性。两者合力,造成依靠低成本、低技能劳动力发展起来的劳动密集型企业过度发展、过度竞争,强烈的劳动力需求和有限的劳动工资提升空间这一对矛盾由此而生。文章从对城乡劳动力流动模式的影响因素分析出发,利用对杭州市农民工永久性迁移意愿调查数据,探讨这些因素在构成劳动迁移成本、造成城乡劳动力市场分割上的不同作用程度,以期为能从制度安排上实现党的十七届三中全会确定的城乡劳动力市场一体化,促进城乡劳动力永久性迁移提供参考借鉴。
The labor shortage phenomenon troubling China' s economic development in recent years reveals the incomplete understanding of labor supply scale and structure, which rejects the theory of unlimited supply of labor force and also reveals the situation of urban and rural labor market segmentation, difficulties of free migration and ineffective allocation of labors. The urban and rural labor market segmentation makes the labor fail to stable institutional expectation and lack skills wills of strengthening skills and human capital accumulation, and makes them migrate and employ in migratory pattern. In the meanwhile, enterprises faced with the employees with high degree of mobility fail to input resources to upgrade industry structure. The two factors cause the overdevelopment and overcompetition of laborvintensive enterprises which rely on low-cost, low-skilled labor force, which further leads to conflicts of intensive labor demand and limited room for improvement of labor wages. This paper analyzes the impact factors of urban and rural labor migration pattern using data on the permanent migration wills of rural migrant workers in Hangzhou to explore the affecting degree of these factors as the labor migration cost on the urban and rural labor market segmentation. The policy meaning is to provide reference for the institution arrangements that foster integration of urban and rural labor market and permanent migration of rural labor.