笔者以我国2003年~2013年30个省域的面板数据为研究对象,运用熵值法,在测度新型城镇化发展水平的基础上,通过空间计量模型实证分析了我国新型城镇化发展对农业产业结构的影响。研究表明,我国各地区2003年~2013年新型城镇化发展水平均呈现逐年上升的趋势,但区域差异较大;对于全国、中部和西部,新型城镇化发展水平对农业产业结构的影响均呈现倒U型曲线特征,但对于东部地区而言,倒U型曲线不存在,而是存在正相关关系;人均农用地面积、农业支出占比等从不同方面对农业产业结构产生影响。因此,在新型城镇化推进过程中,应该建立土地保障机制,鼓励农业规模化、产业化和组织化的生产经营方式,进而推进区域农业产业结构的合理快速发展。
According to panel data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2013 and through the entropy method on the basis of measuring new urbanization development level,this paper studies the impact of new urbanization development level to agricultural industry structure. The result shows that the new urbanization development level is showing an increasing trend from 2003 to 2013,but the regional difference is more significant. For the country,the Central and the West,the impact of new development to agricultural structure are characterized by the presence of inverted U-shaped curve,but for the East inverted U-shaped curve does not exist,on the contrary,there is a positive correlation. While factors like per capita agricultural land area and agricultural expenditure proportion have an impact on agricultural structure from different aspects. Therefore,it is necessary to establish land protection mechanism,encourage agricultural scale,industrialized and organized production and management methods,thus promoting the rapid development of regional reasonable agricultural structure.