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中文摘要：
本文以1986年至2004年间8年数据为基础，定量分析了绿洲区土地利用／覆盖变化的社会经济与自然驱动力。文中对各项指标进行了相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析，对社会经济和自然驱动力的11个指标综合分析和对比，确定绿洲区土地利用／覆盖变化的主要驱动因子，阐明干旱区绿洲土地利用／覆盖变化的驱动机制。结果表明：张掖市甘州区土地利用／覆盖变化驱动力的第一主成分、第二主成分的贡献率分别为74．303％和16．960％，反映出绿洲土地利用／覆盖变化驱动力因子的综合性与复杂性，其中，社会经济驱动力在张掖市甘州区LUCC中起到主导作用，自然驱动力相对来说作用较小。
英文摘要：
Based on the eight years＇ data during 1986 and 2004, this research analyzed the socio -economic and natural driving forces of LUCC in oasis region. In the text, the analyses about correlation, main component and regress were made to all kinds of indexes, and synthetical analyses and contrast were made to the 11 indexes of the socio -economic and natural driving forces, and the main driving factors of LUCC of the oasis region were confirmed, and the driving mechanisms of LUCC of the oasis in the arid region were illustrated. The results indicated that： the contributive rate of the first and second main components of LUCC driving forces in this region were 74.303% and 16. 960% respectively. That reflected the .synthesis and complexity of the driving forces factors of LUCC in the oasis region. The socio - economic driving forces placed a dominant role in the LUCC of the oasis region and the function of the natural driving forces was relatively small.
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