根据张掖市1949年以来的农村社会经济统计资料、土地概查、土地详查分析和研究,运用多元逐步回归分析方法,对近55年来的耕地变化态势及总人口、城市化水平、粮食单产水平、工农业总产值、人均GDP、财政收入等影响耕地资源变化的主要动因进行了探讨。应用SPSS进行逐步分析,建立多元回归模型,结果表明,与张掖市耕地资源变化最密切的因子为总人口、城市化水平以及人均GDP。
According to socio-economic statistical data, the general surveys and analysis of land as well as cultivated land in the Zhangye city from 1949 to 2004 were conducted, The major driving forces that affected the trend of cuhivated land change was pointed out. With the regression analysis, a muhivariate regression model was set up and result showed that population, urbaznization level and por-capita GDP were the most important driving forces affecting the trend of cultivated laud change. The authors believed that a scientific asis for sustainable agricultural development of this region was provided.