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中文摘要：
对黑河上游山区1956—2004a祁连站气温与降水数据、莺落峡水文站出山径流进行各季年均值变化分析、基于MathCAD对气温和降水分别与出山径流的关系进行相关分析,发现近50a黑河流域气温与降水的变化没有显著的相关性,降水变化与径流的变化表现出正相关,而气温与径流则没有相关性。近50a降水各季变化没有一致性,却出现一定的规律,即春季持平,夏秋下降,而冬季增加。相对于降水而言,气温变化则表现出各季之间的一致性趋势,即近10a表现出明显的增温趋势,而且增温幅度相似,都在2℃左右。另外对气温与降水对出山径流的影响做了量化,降水与径流的相关系数为0.557,而气温与径流的相关系数只有0.045左右;根据影响径流的气候因子所占权重,集成气候（无量纲）变化曲线,显示出与径流变化的一致性,即气候变化对径流变化有明显的影响;依据本文分析和总结,预计今后10—20a气温、降水都将有升高或增加趋势,届时出山径流将相应增加。
英文摘要：
The annual air temperature and precipitation variation trends in different seasons of Heihe River alpine catchment were summarized based on the data of Qilian station and Yingluxia gorge station during the past 50a, the relative connection between alpine streamflow and air temperature ,precipitation were analyzed separately by the methods of MathCAD. The result showed that the variation of alpine streamflow and precipitation appeared to have obvious pertinence with the correlation modulus of 0. 557, yet that of alpine streamflow and air temperature was not obvious with the correlation modulus of 0. 445. Changes in alpine precipitation and temperature were seasonally different in the past 50 years. Precipitation in summer and autumn appeared to decrease and that in winter tended to increase, but in spring it presented retainable. Compared to precipitation, however, annual air temperature in different seasons presented totally an increasing tendency with a rising of 5℃ in last decade. Intergrated climate changing curve on the basis of the main factors affected climate mostly presented obvious consistency with the variation of alpine streamflow and it was proved that alpine streamflow was determined by climate change remarkably. Based on the analysis, it could be presumed that the air temperature and precipitation would increase in 10-20 years, then, the alpine streamflow would increase accordingly.
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