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中文摘要：
应用回归分析方法确定对研究区土地利用/覆盖变化有重要贡献的10种驱动因子, 用线性规划方法确定模型输入文件中模拟期间每年的各种土地利用类型面积. 用ArcView空间分析的方法建立驱动力文件, 利用SPSS13.0软件分析每种驱动力的权重（β值）, 建立Logistic 方程, 并将其作为模型输入文件. 建立可利用水资源总量分别为18.0×10^8 m^3, 26.5×10^8 m^3, 35.0×10^8 m^3的3种情景假设, 应用CLUE-S模型模拟张掖市2001-2020年土地利用/覆盖变化变化. 模拟结果显示： 1） 三种情景下, 耕地的面积都在减少, 耕地面积的减少量与可利用水资源总量呈负相关; 2）林草地面积在3种情景下均增加, 林草地面积的变化与可利用水资源总量呈正相关; 3）在3种情景假设下, 水域面积的变化都不明显; 4）城镇用地面积变化与水量也呈正相关; 5）未利用地面积持续减少.
英文摘要：
In this thesis, the advanced model of ＂CLUE-S＂ is applied to model land use and land coverage change in Zhangye Municipality. The modeling period is from 2000 to 2020. The modeling builds 3 kinds of scenarios according to water resource restriction, namely, the model is carried out under the conditions of available water resources of 18×10^8 m^, 26.5×10^8 m^3and 35×10^8 m^3, respectively, in this region. The base map is the land use map from TM image of 2000. And 10 kinds of driving factors, representing import contribution to LUCC in this area are chosen, which are produced with ArcView spatial analysis means. Then the weighting coefficient （13） of each land use is analyzed with SPSS10.0. The modeling conclusions are： 1）the area of agrarian is decreasing in all the 3 scenarios; 2）the decreased agrarian is negatively correlated with available water resources; 3） woodland and grassland are also increasing in the three scenarios, with a positive correlation to the available water resource; 4）the change of watercover area is not visible in the three scenarios; 5） the city and town area do not change in Scenario 1, but increase 19. 5% in Scenario 2 and 59. 19% in scenario 3, so the areas of city and town also are in positive correlation with available water resources; 6） the wasteland is largely decreasing.
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