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中文摘要：
结合黑河流域40多年来水文,社会经济等方面的资料,采用趋势分析法估算人为因素对流域地表径流的影响,通过相关和主成分分析等数学方法分析人类活动诸因子与流域地表径流之间的关系。研究结果表明：随着从上游至中下游的顺序,各水文站年径流量差积曲线先上升,而后呈长时期连续下降的趋势,而且顺河流方向越往下,曲线的坡度越明显,即径流量减少的趋势越明显,但黑河干流上游地表径流在过去的几十年里并没有减少,且有一定程度的增加,这说明各水文站径流的差积曲线主要是由于人类活动的影响,导致下游生态环境受损。
英文摘要：
Based on the data of hydrology,socio-economy during the last 40 years in Heihe River Basin,this research estimated the impact of anthropogenic activities on surface runoff through trend analysis,and measured the relationship between factors of anthropogenic activities and surface runoff by correlation analysis and principal component analysis.The results show：from the midstream to downstream,the difference product curves of hydrological stations are rising at first,then continually going down.When it is much nearer to the downstream,the decreasing of runoff is much more obvious,but the runoff in upstream is increasing in the late 40 years which shows that difference product curves of hydrological stations are mainly due to anthropogenic activities,which leading to the destroying of eco-environment of the downstream.
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