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中文摘要：
利用近46年来讨赖河上游冰沟站年径流量和该流域同期的气候资料，分析了讨赖河径流的变化规律及其影响因子。研究表明：讨赖河上游年径流量呈减少的趋势，其中以夏季最为明显；讨赖河上游降水呈增加的趋势，并以夏季最为显著，而流量大的秋季是减少的。流域温度的升高，特别夏季的温度升高与夏季的径流关系显著。温度的升高加大了流域的蒸发量特别是夏季的蒸发量，加剧了地表水资源的消耗，这也是讨赖河上游径流减少的主要原因，文章运用相关分析，回归分析等数学方法研究了他们之间的定量关系。
英文摘要：
Taking the upper reaches of Taolaihe River as study area and based on the data from Taolai Meteorological Station and Binggou Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2000 in the study area, the changing trends of surface water, climate and reveals their causes were analyzed, Some conclusions were drawn as follows ： （ 1 ） Results showed the discharge showed a declining trend in the 46 years especially since the latter 1980s, which was extremely significant in summer. （2） Precipitation showed a rising trend but it＇ s not significant in 1955--2000. The most significant in crease was in summer which had a closely relationship with funoff. （3） Sharp rise of temperature in the source region resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge supply, by the fact that the rising temperatures result in the increase of evaporation played the most important role in decreasing of flow.
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