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中文摘要：
综合考虑水文气象、南水北调工程、地下水超采控制、入海水量控制目标等因素，以及现状（2005年）、2010年和2020年3个水平年，设置了9个情景方案，应用海河流域二元水循环模型（简称“二元模型”）进行了水资源管理战略情景模拟分析。采用GDP、粮食产量、ET（蒸散发量）、入海水量、总用水量、减少地下水超采量等评价指标对9个情景方案的模拟结果进行了评价，给出了各规划水平年的推荐方案。在此基础上，对今后海河流域水资源管理战略问题如ET控制、地下水超采量控制和入渤海水量控制等进行了讨论。研究表明，未来虽然有南水北调工程对本流域的补水，但需要严格控制流域用水量和耗水量，才能做到逐步减少地下水超采量、增加入渤海水量，实现国民经济与生态环境的和谐发展。
英文摘要：
The nine integrated water resources management scenarios in the Haihe River Basin （HRB）, comprehensively considering factors of the hydro-meteorology, the South to North Water Transfer Projects （ SNWTP）, the groundwater overexploitation and the control target of river flow into the Bohai Sea, and the current situation of 2005, as well as two future scenarios of 2010 and 2020 planning year level are constructed using the dualistic hydrological cycle model （abbreviated as Dualistic Model）. The results are evaluated through the evaluation indices, including GDP, grain output, evapotranspiration （ET） , river flow into the sea, total water use and reduced groundwater overexploitation. The optimized scenario is obtained and proposed. Building upon the result of scenario simulations, the fu-ture water resources management in the HRB is discussed in the context of controlling of ET, groundwater overexploitation, and flow discharge into the sea. The result shows that in spite of having future water supply from the SNWTP, the measures of strict control of water usages and the consumptions are still essential and necessary in order to gradually reduce the groundwater overexploitation and increase the flow discharge into the Bohai Sea, which will ensure the harmonious development of economy and eco-environment in the HRB.
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