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中文摘要：
以流域为基本单元进行水质水量耦合,构建武汉汤逊湖水环境演变模型（TXHwater）;借助MonteCarlo分析方法,对未来汤逊湖的水环境演变趋势进行了分析.结果表明,来水不确定条件下,COD模拟结果的不确定性较大,NH3-N和TN的不确定性中等,TP的不确定性最小.来水不确定性对流域汇流、巡司河入流过程影响较大,主要体现在汛期的5～9月份.如按现有规划,不考虑对污染物指标的削减,到2010年和2020年该湖未来水环境形势严峻,水质将演变为劣V类,主要控制指标为TN和TP,汛期6～8月浓度达到峰值.
英文摘要：
Focus on the quantity and quality process in the whole basin, TXHwater model was developed to evaluate water environment trends of Tangxun Lake in Wuhan. Through Monte Carlo techniques, characteristics of watershed pollution loads, water flows and water quality trends under rainfall uncertainty were presented. The uncertainty of simulated COD and TP was largest and smallest, respectively, while uncertainty of simulated NH3-N and TN in the medium level. Rainfall conditions had significant impacts on the runoff yield and stream inflow of Xunsi river mostly during the flood season. If no further pollution control measures were planned, degradation of water quality will be aggravated to V category in 2010 and 2020 year. TN and TP were the key pollution factors, and will reach their maximum value from June to August during the year, and almost exceeded the required water environment standard for total rainfall possibilities.
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