利用黄河干流主要水文站近60 a来的实测年径流量及年输沙量资料,采用M–K秩相关检验法及秩和检验法研究了黄河主要水文站来水量和来沙量的变化趋势及其发生跳跃的年份。结果表明:黄河干流除上游唐乃亥水文站外,其他水文站年径流量和年输沙量均呈显著减少趋势,年径流量发生主要突变的年份为1986年,年输沙量发生主要突变的年份为1980年。最后,探讨了气候变化和人类活动对黄河水、沙量变化的影响,认为降水减少和两岸引用水量增多是影响实测径流量减少的主要原因,除了来水量减少引起来沙量减少外,汛期暴雨强度减弱、中游水土保持措施减沙及水库建设拦沙对黄河来沙量的减少起到了主导作用。
Based on nearly 60 years of observed data from the main hydrologic stations on the stem stream, the M-K trend test and the rank sum test were adopted to check the tendencies and abrupt change points of variations in the annual runoff and the annual sediment load. The results indicate that both of the runoff and the sediment load are in sharp downward trends at most hydrologic stations, except Tangnaihai Hydrological Station. Fur- thermore, the Yellow River has started to witness abrupt changes in annual runoff since 1986, and has started to go through abrupt changes in annu- M sediment load since 1980. Finally, the main factors contributed to tile variations are discussed. It is manifested that the reducing precipitation and the increasing water consumption are main contributions of the runoff decline; In addition to the reduction of runoff leading to? the sediment load decrease, the reduced rainfall intensity, the combined effect of the soil erosion control and the reservoir construction have played a leading role in the trend of sediment load decline.