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中文摘要：
针对城市土地储备系统具有较高的不确定性及土地储备的滞后性，土地需求预测是土地储备数量合理确定的基础，利用EViews拟合ARIMA模型，建立了城市土地季节性需求预测模型，并通过了博克斯-皮尔斯Q统计量法检验，表明建立的模型适用于城市土地需求的动态分析和预测。根据预测结果，利用模糊规划的方法，提出了在土地储备模糊约束条件下的土地储备数量确定方法。对某市土地储备数量的确定进行了实证研究，演示了模型和决策方法的应用，验证了预测模型和决策方法的科学性和实用性。
英文摘要：
In view of High uncertainty exists in city land reserve system, and land demand prediction is a foundation for the confirmation of quantity of land reserve. Seasonal demand prediction model of city land is constructed by fitting ARIMA model with EViews soft, and has passed Box-Pierce Q test, which has shown that the model constructed is applicable in predicting the land demand of the city. On the basis of prediction result, confirmation method of land reserve quantity under the condition of fuzzy constraints has been proposed by using fuzzy programming. A case study on the confirmation of land reserve quantity of Z city is introduced to illustrate the application of the method, also validates that the method is scientific and applicable.
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