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中文摘要：
以交通综合信息平台为数据支撑，考虑交通指数发布对交通预测的影响，应用模式匹配和概率统计方法构建了概率交通预报方法的流程框架，研究了概率交通预报的2项关键实现技术，包括3级交通数据融合方法和交通指数发布内容。算例结果表明：概率交通预报使主路径和替代路径的饱和度差值从40％降低到23％；由于概率交通预报方法在考虑交通指数发布对出行行为影响的基础上对交通预测结果进行了修正，所以提高了交通预报的可信度，使路网交通负荷趋于均衡。
英文摘要：
Taking the effects of traffic index release on traffic forecast into consideration, a procedure frame of traffic forecast was established based on comprehensive transport information platform （CTIP）, mode matching method and probability statistics method. Two key implementation technologies were studied, including three-level traffic data fusion and traffic index release. Example result shows that probabilistic traffic forecast method reduces the saturation gap of main road and alternative road from 40% to 23%, improves the confidence of traffic forecast by considering the influences of traffic index release on travel behavior, and can balance OD distribution of road network effectively. 2 tabs, 5 figs, 11 refs.
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