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中文摘要：
为了科学评价多模式公交信息服务对出行方式选择行为的影响，基于超级交通网络理论，从出行链的角度分析了多模式公交信息服务对出行方式选择的影响机理，并在构建巢式Logit出行方式划分模型的基础上引入行程时间可靠度因子改进效用函数；根据上海市某郊区得到的显性偏好调查数据，利用极大似然法对巢式Logit模型进行参数标定后，对有无多模式公交信息服务条件下的出行方式分担率进行了计算和对比分析。研究结果表明：多模式公交信息服务能够有效引导轿车及其他个体机动化出行方式向多模式公交系统转移，提高了公交出行比例。研究结果可为大城市公共交通信息系统的改善和建设提供决策支持。
英文摘要：
In order to scientifically evaluate the influences of integrated multi-modal transit information service （IMTIS） on travel mode choice behaviors, authors firstly analyzed its influence mechanism based on traffic hyper-network theory from the point of view of trip chain. Secondly, a nested Logit choice model was developed and travel time reliability factor was introduced to adjust the value of vital attribute variables of the utility function. Lastly, the nested Logit model was calibrated by maximum likelihood method based on data from a revealed preference survey conducted in the suburb of Shanghai, and usages of various travel modes with and without IMTIS were respectively counted out and contrasted. The result shows that IMTIS is effective to shift part travels from private modes to transit modes and thus improves share ratios of transit. Outcomes of this research can provide decision support for the development and improvement of transit information system in big cities.
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