京津冀各城市经济发展水平与房地产发展程度各异,研究京津冀地区房地产价格与居民收入差距之间的关系不应一概而论。基于对京津冀地区房地产市场的聚类分析,可按照房地产发展速度将京津冀地区的13个城市划分为快速、稳定、较慢三类。以北京、天津、唐山、石家庄为代表城市,选用代表收入差距的基尼系数和定基处理后的房地产价格两个变量构建VAR模型,进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,可得到针对各类地区的综合分析结果。研究发现,房地产价格与收入差距的相互关系因各地房地产发展速度和经济发展水平的不同而存在差异,如北京和天津地区房地产价格对收入差距影响较大,而收入差距对房地产价格的影响并不明显;石家庄房地产和经济发展后劲较足,房地产价格对收入差距的影响呈现出不断增加的趋势;唐山房地产市场发展较为稳定,房地产价格与收入差距间表现出比较微弱的关系。在房地产价格对收入差距的贡献程度方面,北京的贡献率为70%,成为贡献率最大的城市;唐山的贡献率在60%左右,仅次于北京;天津的贡献率为40%,但增长速度较快;石家庄是房地产价格对收入差距贡献率最小的城市。在收入差距对房地产价格的贡献方面,只有天津表现出较强的变化趋势,贡献率在30%左右,其他城市均稳定维持在10%以下。
The economic and real estate development levels are different in different cities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,so researches on the relationship between income gap and real estate price in this regions should not be treated as the same.According to the speed of real estate development,13 cities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are divided into such three categories as fast,stable and slow development. The authors select Beijing,Tianjin,Tangshan and Shijiazhuang as representative cities,take the Gini coefficient and the fixed based price of real estate to build the VAR model,and analyze the impulse response. The results show that relations between real estate price and income gap will depend on the development speed of regional real estate markets and economic development. In Beijing and Tianjin,real estate price has greater impact on income gap,while income gap has little impact on real estate price;in Shijiazhuang,the impact of real estate price on income gap is increasing;and in Tangshan,there is only little relation between them. In terms of contribution of real estate price to income gap,the contribution of Beijing,Tangshanand Tianjin is 70% ,60% ,and 40% ,respectively;and that of Shijiazhuang is the smallest. In terms of contribution of income gap to real estate price,only the contribution of Tianjin is around 30%,which demonstrates stronger trend of change;and the contribution of other cities are all below 10%,which are very stable.