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中文摘要：
探讨了乘客在实时换乘信息提示下,结合自身偏好进行线路选择的行为.由于实时提示等车信息不完全准确,通过引入不确定分布予以描述,并针对实时信息提示的等车时间建立了基于实时-时变结合策略的更新机制,据此对乘客的线路初始偏好值进行修正,并建立了能综合反映实时提示信息和乘客个体偏好对线路选择行为影响的线路选择概率模型.最后,通过数值仿真验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,并分析了等车时间和乘车时间的权重对乘客线路选择行为的影响.结果表明,实时提示信息会改变乘客对线路初始偏好,进而改变乘客的线路选择行为.
英文摘要：
Route choice behavior of passengers is explored based on their preference for different routes and with real-time transfer guidance information. Dynamic updating mechanism for the waiting time is developed according to real-time guidance information with uncertainty. Then, the passengers＇ initial preference for different routes is amended. A passenger preference-based probability model for route choice is proposed. Finally, the feasibility and validity of the model are demonstrated through a numerical simulation, and the influence of weight coefficients of waiting time and riding time is discussed. The results show the real-time guidance information has some impacts on passengers＇ initial preference and their route choice behaviors.
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