本文利用汉森(Hansen)门槛回归分析的方法,从R&D强度、产业结构两个角度研究了1978-2012年我国R&D投入增长与经济增长之间的阶段性交化特点。实证结果显示,当R&D强度越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用在不断加强;当工定占GDP比重越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用由不显著转变为显著为正;但当第三产业占GDP比重越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用却由显著为正转变为不显著。
This paper uses the threshold regression method by Hansen (2000) to measure the threshold effects of R&D investment and economic growth from the perspective of R&D intensity and industrial structure between 1978 and 2012. This analysis shows there are regime-switching. With the R&D intensity increasing, the effect of R&D investment on economic growth is stronger and stronger. With the proportion of industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from non-significant to significant. However, with the proportion of the third industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from significant to non-significant.