随着中国国民经济的快速增长,自然资源稀缺对社会经济发展的制约日益显现。从多角度对自然资源进行综合评价,已成为资源利用研究的热点。本文根据1997年、2002年、2007年中国投入产出表计算各自然资源部门的感应度系数,由此分析中国自然资源的渗透性,结果表明:石油和天然气、耕地和煤炭资源在国民经济各部门中的渗透性最强。论文从相对稀缺指数衡量中国的各类资源相对于全世界是否稀缺。根据中国及世界的消费量及储量等相关数据,计算中国自然资源的相对稀缺指数,结果表明,能源矿产资源中以石油的相对稀缺程度最为严重;金属及非金属矿产资源中以钾盐、天然碱、钴、镍、铝的相对稀缺程度最为严重;可再生资源皆表现为相对稀缺,且耕地资源的相对稀缺程度有加重的趋势。中国自然资源面临着全面稀缺,能源资源和耕地资源具有高渗透性和相对稀缺性,多元化的能源战略和最严格的耕地保护制度势在必行。
With the rapid growth of China’s national economy,natural resources scarcity has become an increasingly serious constraint on the social and economic development.The integrated evaluation on natural resources from multiple perspectives has become a focus in the area of resources utilization.This paper analyses the penetration of natural resources into economic development in China by the induction coefficient calculated using China’s input and output data in 1997,2002 and 2007.The results show that the penetration of petroleum and natural gas,cultivated land and coal resources is most powerful.This paper explores whether the natural resources in China are relatively scarce compared with the world level by the relative scarcity index(RSI).Based on the data such as consumption and reserves in both China and the world,this paper calculates the RSI of natural resources in China.The results show that petroleum is the scarcest among energy resources,the sylvine,trona,cobalt,nickel and aluminum are the scarcest among metals and non-metallic mineral resources,all of the renewable resources are relatively scarce,and the degree of cultivated land resource’s relative scarcity is more serious.The scatter plot of penetration versus relative scarcity of natural resources illustrates that China is faced with overall scarcity of natural resources,and the energy and cultivated land resources have a higher degree of both penetration and relative scarcity.The diverse energy strategies and the most stringent farmland protection system are imperative.