构建理论模型可发现,股市表现、基金投资风格与持有风险资产质量对输赢家业绩排名与风险调整关系产生交互影响.在牛市阶段,持有优质资产输家排名越靠后风险调整越大,持有优质资产赢家排名越靠前风险调整越小;在熊市阶段,持有优质资产的保守型输家排名越靠后风险调整越小,持有优质资产的保守型赢家排名越靠前风险调整越大.本文以2005年-2010年开放式基金为样本,对理论模型推论进行检验,实证结果也支持推论.实证检验还发现,输赢家的风险调整产生了显著的经济后果.在竞赛年度末,输家的业绩排名上升,赢家的业绩排名下滑;且排名越靠前的输家业绩上升越大,排名越靠后的赢家业绩下滑越大.
This paper constructs a theoretical model to prove that stock market cycle,investment style and the quality of risk assets exert an interactive influence on the relationship between the winners‘or losers' performance ranking and risk adjustment. In a bull market,high-quality-asset-holding loserswith lower rankings make greater risk adjustments,and high-quality-asset-holding winners with higher ranking-make less risk adjustments. In a bear market,conservative-high-quality-asset-holding loserswith lower rankingsmake less risk adjustments,and conservative-high-quality-asset-holding winners with higher rankings make greater risk adjustments. The empirical test of the theoretical model inference by using a sample of open-ended funds during2005-2010 shows supportive evidence. Risk adjustments of winners or losers have remarkable economic consequences. Losers have significant improvements on performance ranking while winners show substantial decline at the end of the year. It is also proved that the performance of losers with lower rankings improves more,and the performance of winners with higher rankings drops more.