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中文摘要：
基于波普尔的试错思想，从R＆D盟主企业和候选研发企业两个角度出发，分析了R＆D联盟伙伴选择试错成本形成的微观机理。运用先验概率、后验概率以及损失函数理论构建了R＆D联盟伙伴选择的试错模型，得出了R＆D盟主企业犯两类错误的概率表达式，并给出了试错成本最小时R＆D盟主企业对候选研发企业有效价值的贝叶斯估计取值范围。通过揭示R＆D联盟伙伴选择的试错机理，为研发企业减少R＆D联盟伙伴选择的经济损失以及提高R＆D联盟伙伴选择效率提供理论支持，从而有利于研发企业更加有效地把握市场结盟机遇。
英文摘要：
Based on the trial-and-error thought of Popper, the micro formation mechanisms of the trial-anderror cost of R＆D alliance partner-selection has been analyzed from the point of R＆D leader enterprise and R＆D member enterprises. Through prior probabilities, posterior probability and loss function, the trial-anderror model on R＆D alliance partner-selection has been set up, and the probability functions of two kinds of mistake of R＆D leader enterprise have been obtained. Furthermore, the Bayes evaluation range of effective value of R＆D member enterprises has been given, which is estimated by R＆D leader enterprise at the least cost of trial-and-error. By revealing the trial-and-error mechanism of R＆D alliance partner-selection, theoretical supports have been provided for enhancing partner-selection efficiency of R＆D enterprises, the which can make the R＆D enterprises more effectively seize the market alliance opportunity.
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