中文摘要：

中国经济的高速发展带来了碳排放的快速增加。总结目前国内外所使用的碳排放预测方法,讨论国内外碳排放的影响因素;应用离散二阶差分方程预测模型（DDEPM）,预测中国2020年的碳排放量与GDP数值,结果表明中国未来10年碳排放增长速度依旧很快,单位GDP的碳排放降低潜力巨大;通过文献检索、专家咨询、问卷调查与头脑风暴相结合的方法,建立中国碳排放影响因素体系;运用应用结构解释模型（ISM）对其进行聚类分析,经过UCINET模拟,将影响因素体系划分为5个聚类;根据聚类中影响因素的相互关系,分析各个聚类中的关键影响因素,从而得出中国碳排放影响因素体系中的5个关键因素。

英文摘要：

The rapid economy development of China brings about fast increasing carbon emission. The paper first summarized the present situation of carbon emission forecast, and elaborated the factors of carbon emission home and abroad. Then, based on the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model （DDEPM）, using the Matlab programming, and in accordance with the annul data of carbon emission and GDP from 1980 to 2009,it put forward the forecast of the carbon emission and GDP data of 2020. The results show that growth rate of carbon emission will be fast. Combining with document retrieval,expert consultation and brain storm method ,the study enumerates 14 kinds of factors that influence the carbon emission in China ,forming the carbon emission influential factor system of China. The paper straightens out the relationship of these factors by the Interpretative Structural Modeling Method （ISM）. The 14 kinds of influential factors are divided into 5 clusters. According to the factors＇ relationship of each cluster,5 key factors are determined in the carbon emission influential factor system.