中文摘要：

对于在国际贸易中产生的隐含碳的相关研究正日益受到关注.运用投入产出法测算了天津市1991-2011年的工业出口隐含碳,为了考察天津市工业出口隐含碳与经济增长之间的关系,选取了天津市1991-2011年GDP、能源消耗、出口额相关数据与工业出口隐含碳排放进行了协整检验与Granger因果关系检验.结果表明：随着经济的增长,天津市工业出口隐含碳呈逐年增长趋势；天津市GDP、能源消耗、出口额之间存在协整关系；能源消耗、出口额是隐含碳排放的Granger原因,经济增长GDP不是隐含碳排放的Granger原因,出口额是经济增长GDP的Granger原因.最后针对以上分析结论,提出天津市工业低碳转型升级的相关政策建议.

英文摘要：

There is growing concern over the research on embodied carbon in the international trade. Firstly, the input-out- put analysis method was used to estimate embodied carbon emissions of Tianjin industrial exports from 1991 to 2010. In or- der to investigate implied relationship between the industrial exports embodied carbon and economic growth of Tianjin, the methods of cointegration analysis and Granger causality estimation were used to test the relationship of Tianjin＇ s GDP, en- ergy consmnption, exports and embodied carbon based on the data of 1991--2010. The results show that the export embod- ied carbon emissions is increasing with economic growth year by year. Tianjin＇ s GDP, energy consumption, exports and embodied carbon have cointegration relationship. Energy consumption and exports are the Granger cause of export embodied carbon, and GDP is not the Granger cause of export embodied carbon. Exports are the Granger cause of GDP. Finally, ac- cording to the conclusion of the above analysis, this paper propases low-carbon policy recommendations of industrial trans- formation and upgrading of Tianjin.