中文摘要：

研究了一类在贝叶斯需求预测更新情形下，生命周期中采用B2C与C2B两阶段进行产品销售的供应链模型，研究发现无法使用单一契约来协调供应链。在此基础上，设计了具有供应商价格折扣契约与零售商承诺订购契约的两阶段供应链契约协调机制，证明了两阶段协调机制能够实现供应链的帕累托改进。算例分析表明了两阶段契约协调机制的有效性，并发现能够实现供应链完美协调的契约参数不一定在帕累托集合内，供应链不一定能够达到完美协调；且由于零售商与供应商的最优契约参数不同，需要通过零售商与供应商之间的谈判达到纳什均衡。

英文摘要：

This paper develops a supply chain model with the two-stage of B2C and C2B in life cycle under demand forecast with information updating based on Bayesian and the result shows that the single contract cannot coordinate the supply chain. The coordination mechanism of supply chain with price discount contract of supplier and commitment order of retailer are designed on the bases, and it proves that two-stage supply chain coordina- tion mechanism can realize the Pareto improvement. A numerical example shows the effectiveness of the two- stage contract coordination mechanism, and the supply chain contract parameters to achieve perfect coordination are not always in the Pareto collection; the Nash equilibrium between retailer and supplier is achieved through negotiation because of the different ootimal contract uarameters.