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中文摘要：
以福建省南平市10个县域人口的空间迁移数据为资料，首先基于双约模型，计算人口迁移的合理格局，然后利用 Markov 链预测将来人口迁移的趋势，最后借助线性规划计算人口的合理分布。结果表明：（1）人口迁移的不对称性显著。（2）远期人口分配仍以延平区、邵武市为最大，建瓯市、建阳区位于第二梯队。（3）武夷山市和建阳区作为行政区划调整后的核心地区，应该加强基础设施建设，以增强辐射能力。
英文摘要：
Based on the data of population migration in the city of Nanping in Fujian province,this paper attempts to apply Spatial Interaction Model,Markov Chain and Linear Programming to study the population migration in this area. Firstly,the Gravity Model of Spatial Interaction is used to compute the migration and allocation of population in different sub-districts. Then Markov Chain is employed to predict the trend of population migration in the future. Finally,Linear Programming is adopted to calculate the population distribution. The conclusions are drawn as follows：（1）the proportion and the way of population migration is diversity and there exists a significant asymetry of populaiton migration;（2）the forward population distribution reveals that Yanping and Shaowu are the two largest cities,while the second are Jian’ou and Jianyang;（3）it suggests that Wuyishan and Jianyang should strengthen their construction of infrustructure to enhance the radiating capacity as a new administrative center.
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