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中文摘要：
以济南轨道交通R1线王府庄站盾构始发为工程背景，结合工程地质条件，统计分析以往工程实例，归纳总结出盾构始发诱发安全事故的28个风险因素。采用专家调查法对风险清单进行对比分析，运用模糊层次分析法定量计算得到各层次风险权重，研究表明土体改良较差、洞VI密封不当、盾构始发参数调节不当等因素是诱发盾构始发安全的关键问题。针对风险较大的环节提出相应的风险规避措施，为同类工程的风险辨识及防控技术提供了科学指导和参考经验。
英文摘要：
Taking Ji＇ nan Rail Transit Line R1 Wangfuzhuang station shield tunnel originating as engineering background, combined with the engineering geological investigation report, the reference of previous engineering experience, this paper sums up the 28 risk factors of shield originating cause accident. Using expert investigation method to comparative analysis of risk factors, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy quantitatively calculated risk weighting at every level, poor soil improvement, the hole sealing, shield originating parameter adjustment were some problems. For more risk link it puts forward the corresponding measures to avoid risks, which provide scientific guidance for the construction of the safety and reasonable,at the same time provide a reference for similar projects.
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