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中文摘要：
针对汇率变化的非线性特征，采用非线性门限自回归模型对汇改后人民币／美元汇率的变化趋势进行分析，并与传统的线性时间序列模型结果进行比较，结果表明，非线性门限自回归模型精度较高．
英文摘要：
Abstract=For the non-linear feature of the exchange dopted for analyzing RMB/USD exchange rate trend. the results show that ones obtained by the threshold rate fluctuations,the threshold autoregressive model is a- Compared with the results provided by the linear model, autoregressive model are more accurate.
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