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中文摘要：
为了提供更加准确的路面使用性能预测方法，提出了一种基于灰色模型并用马尔科夫链进行修正的灰色马尔科夫模型。结合工程实例对该方法的实用性和准确性进行检验，结果表明：灰色马尔科夫模型能够在已知历史资料的基础上对路面使用性能进行比较准确的预测，且和单一的灰色GM（1，1）模型相比具有更高的预测精度。．
英文摘要：
In order to provide a more accurate method {or pavement performance prediction, the grey-markov model based on the grey model and modified by Markov chain was proposed. The applicability and accuracy of the method were tested by the engineering examples. The results show that the grey-markov model makes accurate prediction of pavement performance based on the known historic data. Compared with the single grey GM（1,1） model, the grey-markov model possesses higher precision of prediction.
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