根据青海省东部地区28个气象站1960-2011年的月降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI),Mann-Kendall检验和经验正交函数分解法(EOF)对青海省东部地区旱涝的时空分布特征进行了分析。得出以下结论:(1)青海省东部在近52 a中气候呈现明显的暖湿化趋势,年均气温在1992年左右发生突变;(2)研究区总体旱涝变化大致可分为4个阶段:1960-1975年与1991-2004年的干旱期,及1976-1990年与2005-2011年的洪涝期;(3)EOF分析得出,近52 a青海省东部的主要降水类型为:受大尺度气候异常的影响,全区表现为一致的多雨或少雨,研究区南部地区降雨量受纬度变化更为明显,纬度越高降水越少。
In this paper, the spatial-temporal features of flood and drought in the east of Qinghai was analyzed based on the monthly precipitation data at 28 stations from 1960-2011. Standardized precipitation index (SPI),Mann-Kendall test and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) were applied in the analysis. Results are as follows: (1) The climate in the east of Qinghai presents a warm and wet trend, and a jump in yearly average temperature occurred around 1992; (2) The overall change trend of flood and drought can be divided into four stages: drought periods during 1960-1975 and 1991-2004 and flood periods during 1976-1990 and 2005-2011; (3) The EOF analysis shows that, the precipitation in the east of Qinghai during recent 52 years is mainly affected by large-scale climatic anomaly, and the whole region rainfalls are consistently plentiful or rare. Rainfall in the south of the study area is more obviously influenced by latitude change: the higher the latitude, the more scarce the rainfall.