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中文摘要：
灾害趋势判断是提高灾害预测预报水平的重要途径。根据1950年以来滇西地区和缅句Ms≥6．8级地震资料，通过三元、四元、五元可公度法计算、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系分析，对该地区地震灾害的时间对称性进行了趋势判断。理论计算结果表明：该研究区域2014和2016年强震信号较强，有可能发生较大震级地震。根据空间对称性和强震震中经、纬向迁移特征分析，判断出下一次地震发生地点大致在97．5°E以西，22．5°N以南地区。该研究可丰富重大灾害趋势判断研究案例。
英文摘要：
Disaster trends judgment is an important way to improve the level of its forecast. Based on the seis- mic data＇（ Ms 36. 8 ） of the western Yunnan and Myanmar since 1950, the symmetry and tendency of the earthquake disasters here were analyzed and judged by using the methods of commensurability information ex- traction, MBS and commensurability degree structure. And we have analyzed the western Yunnan and Myan- mar earthquake＇ s space-time symmetry and trends. The results show： there is a strong earthquake signal in the 2014 and 2016 year, it is possible there is a greater magnitude earthquake. According to the spatial sym- metry, we find that the next earthquake may occur in the western of 97.5°E, south of 22, 5° N, The study can enrich the major disasters tendency judgment case.
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