根据菲律宾1970年以来Ms≥7.0的地震资料,采用时间对称性的三元、四元、五元可公度方法和蝴蝶结构图法,对菲律宾地震灾害的时空对称性规律及趋势进行了分析和判断.结果表明,2013,2014年,菲律宾Ms≥7.0地震的信号最强,2014年发生地震的可能性极大;未来地震震中可能向西北方向迁移,在11.5°N以北;124.0°E以西地区,即菲律宾西北地区.
According to the seismic data Ms≥7.0 since 1970 in Philippines,this work analyses and judges the rule and trend of earthquake's time-space symmetry in Philippines by adopting the commensurability method including ternary,quaternary and quintuple and map of butterfly structure(MBS).Results show that the seismic signal Ms≥7.0 is very strong in Philippines in 2013 and 2014.Therefore,it is very likely that earthquake happens in 2014.Meanwhile,the earthquake epicenter may move to the northwest region in the future,north of 11.5° N,west of 124.0° E,that is,northwest area in Philippines.