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中文摘要：
根据山西18个气象站自建站以来到2010年的气温和降水资料,应用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、马尔可夫模型等分析了山西近60a来的气候变化及旱涝趋势。结果表明：1）山西近60a来气候总体上具有暖干化特征,年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,其增长率为0.29℃/10a。20世纪90年代以来气温上升迅速,在1992年气温发生突变,1992年以前为冷期,以后为暖期。2）降水量总体呈减少趋势,为-12.77mm/10a。降水变化与气温变化呈负相关。3）马尔可夫模型预测显示在气温突变后2012～2016年降水处于＂正常＂状态的概率较大。
英文摘要：
Based on the temperature and rainfall data of 18 meteorological stations in Shanxi during 1951 - 2010, the climate change and drought and flood disasters trend in Shanxi were studied by means of trend analysis, Mann- Kendall abrupt change test, Markov. and so on. The results indicate： （1） the climate trends of Shanxi was becoming dry and warm. The mean annual temperature had a wave increasing tendency; the change rate was 0.29℃ per 10 year. The temperature rose quickly since the 20C 90＇s, and jump occurred in 1992. Before 1992 it was a cold period, after it was a warm period. （2） The precipitation in these years was in a descending tendency by - 12.77mm per 10 years. Changes in precipitation and temperature were in the negative correlation. （3） After the abrupt temperature change, there will be a certain probability of precipitation in normal state from 2012 - 2016.
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