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中文摘要：
基于1961-2010年宁夏西海固地区10个气象站点50年的气象资料,利用趋势线法、Z指数法、M-K突变检验法等方法,分析了本区近50年来气候变化对全球变暖的响应及其旱涝灾害的趋势。结果表明：1）近50a本区气候经历了冷湿-暖湿-暖干的转变。气温呈波动上升趋势（0.259℃/10a）,高于西部平均变暖率（0.2℃/10a）;2）近50a来本区降水呈波动下降趋势,下降速率为16.58mm/10a,平均降水量为418mm。降水季节变化特征表现为春、夏、秋三季降水呈下降趋势,秋季降水减少最为明显,冬季降水略有增加。3）旱涝灾害发生频次与气温变化具有一定的同步性。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,由于本区洪灾相对较少,未来旱灾发生频率有可能进一步增加,因此降低气候变化的负面影响,对实现本区可持续发展具有重要意义。
英文摘要：
Based on the observed data of precipitation and temperature during 1961 -2010 in Xi -Hai -Gu Dis- trict of Ningxia, with methods of linear regression, Z index and the M - K mutation test , it aims to analyze the response of global warming owe to climate change and the increasing trend of drought - flood disasters in recent 50 years. The research shows that ： （ 1 ） within 50 years the climate in Xi - Hai - Gu District of Ningxia was inclined to turn drier and drier. The temperature tended to rise（0. 259 ℃ / 10 a）, higher than the western average warming rate （0.2 ℃ / 10 a）. （2） Rainfall rate in recent 50 years in Xi -Hai- Gu District of Ningxia showed a trend of falling volatility and the fixation rate was of 16.58 mm/10 a, with average rainfall of 418.04 mm. Seasonal reduction characteristics of precipitation in spring, summer and autumn was obvious, especially the autumn precipitation. In winter, the precipitation increased slightly. （3） The frequency of drought and flood disasters was in accordance with temperature change. Under the background of global warming, Xi - Hai - Gu District of Ningxia was suffering from drought compared with flood, which is likely to rise further. Thus, it is significant to reduce the negative impact of climate change on regional sustainable development.
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