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长江冲积平原县域气候与气候生产力变化分析——以湖北嘉鱼县为例

ISSN号：1000-0275
期刊名称：农业现代化研究
时间：2014
页码：209-212+243
分类：S162[农业科学—农业气象学;农业科学—农业基础科学]
作者机构：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目：“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性：结构、机理与适应对策”（编号：41171090）.
相关项目：部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性：结构、机理与适应对策

关键词：气候生产力, 气候变化, 冲积平原, 嘉鱼县, climatic productivity, climate change, alluvial plain, Jiayu County

中文摘要：

根据嘉鱼县1957—2012年的气象资料，利用ThomthwaiteMemoria模型，分析了气候变化对该县气候生产力的影响情况。结果表明：（1）近56年嘉鱼县气候经历了冷干-冷湿-暖湿的转变，年均温为17．22℃，年均降水量为1399．9mm，分别以0．221℃／10a和10．961mm／10a的速率呈波动上升趋势。（2）近56年嘉鱼县四季气温均呈上升趋势，其中春季增温速率最快，夏季增温速率最慢；四季降水变化表现为：春秋两季减少，夏冬两季分别以19．333mm／10a和6．810mm／10a的速度递增。总体来看，嘉鱼县气候有暖湿化趋势。（3）未来不同情境气候分析发现：“暖湿型”气候背景下气候生产力最优，平均增幅5．34％-15．68％，“冷干型”气候背景下气候生产力最差，平均减幅5．48％-17．05％。目前，嘉鱼县“暖湿化”气候环境对气候生产力是有利的。

英文摘要：

After analyzing the climate change trend in Jiayu County, Hubei Province, based on the date of the main meteorological factors observed during the period of 1957-2012, the response of climate productivity to climate change is calculated and predicted by using the Thomthwaite Memoria model. The results show：（1） in the last 56 years, the climate tendency has changed ffom cold-dry to cold-wet, end with warm-wet. The annual average temperature and rainfall are 17.22℃ and 1399.9mm, respectively increased with the rate of 0.221℃/10a and 10.961mm/10a. （2） Seasonal temperature rise at different rates, but seasonal precipitation trend is not uniform. It has witnessed decreased trend in spring and autumn while it appears increasing trend in summer and winter with the speed of 19.333 mm/10a and 6.810mm/10a. Overall, the warming-drying climate tendency is obvious. （3）The warm-wet climate environment was the most advantageous to the agricultural production of Jiayu County whose production number was 5.34%-15.68%, while the cold-dry climate was the most disadvantageous to the agricultural production whose production scope was 5.48% -17.05%. Nowadays, the warming-wetting climate tendency of Jiayu County is benefit to climate productivity.

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