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中文摘要：
利用1961～2010年北疆阿勒泰地区的气象数据,对研究区大冬季的气温和降水特征进行分析。结果表明：1）阿勒泰地区年平均气温以0.43℃/10a的速率呈增温趋势,与此同时降雪量也以126.4mm/10a的速度呈上升趋势。2）通过可公度法判断出2012a及2013a发生下一次中-重度雪灾的信号较强。并采用蝴蝶结构图法及可公度结构系法对雪灾发生年份进行了验证。3）太阳黑子及ENSO事件对雪灾的发生均具有一定的影响。
英文摘要：
Based on meteorological data of Altay Region in North Xinjiang during 1961-2010,we analyzed the characteristics of big winter’s temperatures and precipitations.The results showed that： 1）The average temperature of Altay Region was rising with the rate of 0.43℃/10a.At the same time,the precipitation was also in an increasing tendency by 126.4mm/10a.2）the 2012a and 2013a have be determined strong signal of the next moderate-severe snow disaster through the commensurable method.the year that snow disaster happened was proved with the method of time symmetry structure and butterfly structure.3）Sunspots and ENSO events all had certain influence on the occurrence of snow disaster.
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