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东北地区农作物气候生产力对气候变化的时空响应

ISSN号：1001-8581
期刊名称：江西农业学报
时间：2013.7
页码：69-74
分类：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学;农业科学—农业基础科学]
作者机构：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性：结构、机理与适应对策”（41171090）
相关项目：部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性：结构、机理与适应对策

中文摘要：

应用1956～2011年东北地区61个气象台站的逐月气温、降水资料,分析了该地区近55年的气候变化趋势;应用Thomthwaite Memorial模型、Kriging插值法对该区的气候生产力的时空分布进行了分析,并对该地区的气候生产力的未来趋势进行了初步预测。结果显示：（1）东北地区的增温线性倾向率为0.320℃/10年,降水线性倾向率为-12.11 mm/10年,呈现出明显的暖干化趋势;气候生产力以61.84 kg/（hm2.10年）的速率在增加。（2）东北地区各地年平均气温自北向南递增,气候倾向率整体自东南向西北递增;年降水量自东南向西北依次递减;农作物气候生产力除吉林西部、辽宁西北部、内蒙古东部地区气候倾向率呈减少趋势外,其余地区均呈增加趋势。（3）假定不同气候变化背景下分别计算该地区的气候生产力,＂暖湿型＂的气候环境对东北地区的农业最为有利,其增产范围为6.44%～17.19%,＂冷干型＂的气候环境最为不利,其减产范围为7.43%～26.92%,目前东北地区的暖干化趋势在短期内对该区农业生产是有利的,但长期将使农业的不稳定性增加。

英文摘要：

Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 61 meteorological stations in northeastern China from 1956 to 2011, the paper analyzed the climate change trends in this area in the past 55 years, and got the space -time distribution of crop climate productivity by using Thomthwaite Memorial model and Kriging interpolation method , then predicted the trend of crop climate productivity in the future.The results showed that the linear tendency of temperature was at the rate of 0.320℃/10 a, and the linear tendency of precipitation was at the rate of -12.11 mm/10 a, which showed a clear trend of warming and drought;the crop climate productivity increased at the rate of 61.84 kg/(hm 2? 10 a).In the northeastern area, the annual average air tempera-ture increased from north to south, climate tendency rate increased from southeast to northwest in general , and the annual precipita-tion decreased from southeast to northwest;for crop climate productivity, it showed a decreasing trend in the western region of Jilin , the northwestern region of Liaoning , and the eastern region of Inner Mongolia , but it showed an increasing trend in other regions .If the crop climate productivity in different regions was calculated respectively under various climate change backgrounds , warming and humidifying climate environment was most favorable for northeastern agriculture , and its yield was increased by 6.44%~17.19%;while the cold and dry climatic environment was most unfavorable , and its yield was decreased by 7.43%~26.92%.The warm and dry tendency in northwestern China was advantageous for the agricultural production in the short term , but it would increase the in-stability of agriculture in the long term.

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