利用广东、江西两省农户的调查问卷数据,采用倾向得分匹配法,分析确权对农户农地转出行为及意愿的影响。研究表明:从农户转出的实际行为来说,确权尚未产生显著性影响;就农户的选择意愿而言,确权会显著促进其流转意愿,确权对农户提高流转租金、采用正式合约具有显著性正向影响,确权会诱导农户合约短期化、对象选择非身份化的意愿取向。从总体上看,确权会促进农户农地流转行为从关系情感转向理性计算,从非市场化转向市场化。将确权工作所诱导的农户农地流转意愿转化为实际效果需要进行一系列的配套改革。
By using the propensity score matching method, this study analyzes whether and how rights confirmation affects farmer's behavior and willingness of farmland transfer based on the questionnaire data on the household level of Guangdong and Jiangxi province. The result shows that there is no significant difference of behavior between confirmed group and unconfirmed group in the short term, while the confirmed group has stronger willingness of transfer out, higher expectation of transfer price and tendency of asking a formal contract. Although right confirmation doesn't have a significant effect on the choice of transfer object and duration, it seems that farmers tend to shorten the transfer duration and have a non-identification on the object choice. In general, rights confirmation prompts farmland transfer from relation-orientation to rationality-orientation, from non-marketization to marketization. But farmland transfer willingness into action requires ia series of supporting reform measures.