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中文摘要：
从资产专用性与不确定性视角,运用二元Logistic模型实证分析了水稻种植模式选择的影响因素。研究结果表明：资产专用性与不确定性对水稻种植模式选择的影响,部分通过显著性检验;家庭中50岁以上务农劳动力越多、村庄交通条件越好,农户选择种植两季水稻的概率越低;务农劳动力兼业、拥有整地机械、灌溉条件越好,农户选择种植两季水稻的可能性更大,其中务农劳动力通过兼业使劳动时间错峰配置实现劳动力最优利用,最终使农户倾向于种植两季水稻。水田面积与稻农选择两季水稻种植模式呈现倒U型的关系;家庭务农劳动力人数、农业收入占比等控制变量对农户水稻种植模式选择的影响显著。政府应继续培育新型农业经营主体,发展适度规模经营,加大农机补贴力度,提高社会化服务水平,应对农业劳动力不足与弱质化的问题,提高农户种植两季水稻的积极性。
英文摘要：
This paper used binary logistic model to analyze the influencing factors of rice planting pattern selection from the perspective of asset specificity and uncertainty. The study shows that： The effect of asset specificity and uncertainty on the selection of rice planting pattern partially passed the significance test. The more the number of agricultural labor force over 50 years old in the family,the better the traffic condition of the village,the lower the probability of farmers choosing to plant two season rice. Farmers＇ concurrent business behavior,with land preparation machinery,the better irrigation conditions,the households are more likely to choose to plant two-season rice,which the farm labor force through concurrent business behavior to make the labor time to achieve the optimal allocation,and ultimately make farmers tend to grow two quarters of rice. The relationship between paddy field area and rice planting choice showed an inverted U-shape. The impact of control variables of the number of farm laborers,the proportion of agricultural income on the farmers rice planting mode selection is significant. The government should continue to cultivate the main body of the new agricultural management,develop a modest scale of operation,increase the subsidy of agricultural machinery,improve the level of social service,cope with the problem of insufficient and weak agricultural labor,and improve the enthusiasm of farmers in planting two seasons rice.
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