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基于SVDI的吉林省中西部干旱识别及干旱危险性分析

ISSN号：1000-288X
期刊名称：《水土保持通报》
时间：0
分类：S423[农业科学—植物保护]
作者机构：东北师范大学环境学院东北师范大学自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目“多灾种农业气象灾害综合风险动态评估研究：以吉林省中西部玉米产区为例”（41571491）;中央高校基本科研业务费专项”（2412016KJ046）;公益性行业（气象）科研专项储备项目（2015001）

关键词： SVDI, 干旱, 危险性, 时空分布特征, SVDI, drought, drought hazard, temporal and spatial characteristics

中文摘要：

[目的]在农作物生育期期间对吉林省中西部地区进行干旱的识别和量化,进行干旱危险性分析,为该地区农作物防旱减灾工作的展开提供参考。[方法]利用2005—2014年5—8月旬气象站数据和MODIS的NDVI 10d合成产品,采用空间植被干旱指数（SVDI）研究典型年吉林省中西部干旱时空分布特征,并结合农业干旱减产及粮食产量分析其适用性,进一步利用逐旬SVDI概率密度分布计算旬时间尺度的干旱危险性及月时间尺度的干旱危险性分布。[结果]（1）与VCI指数相比,在作物生长前期和后期农业干旱减产和产量波动与SVDI呈现出更高的相关系数;（2）2005—2014年吉林省中西部重旱面积波动较为明显,重旱区域呈现出向中部和西南部地区转移的趋势;（3）吉林省中西部地区内5月上旬、下旬,6和8月下旬干旱发生概率较高;8月上旬和6月下旬干旱危险性较大;通榆县5—8月间干旱危险性较高。[结论]利用SVDI指数进行干旱的识别和量化是可行的,且在吉林省中西部作物生育期不同阶段干旱有明显的区域性。

英文摘要：

[Objective] To identify and quantify the drought during crop growing season in Midwest of Jilin Province and analyze drought hazard in order to provide scientific reference for drought mitigation. [Methods] Based on the meteorological data from May to August during 2005 to 2014 and the corresponding MODIS NDVI products that was combined every ten days and have 500 m resolution, SVDI（spatial vegetation drought index） was calculated to analyze SVDI spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. The index applicability was illustrated in terms of drought-induced agricultural production decrease and yield anomaly. Furthermore, the density distribution of ten-day SVDI from May to August was calculate to demonstrate drought hazard. [Results] （1） Compared with VCI, SVDI behave better for drought recognition. Combined with agricultural drought production and yield anomaly, SVDI showed higher correlation in the initial and final growth period of crop growing season. （2） During 2005--2014, the area hited by severe drought from May to August in Midwest of Jilin Province fluctuated obviously, and had a transiting trend to central and southwest parts. （3） In Midwest of Jilin Province, drought occurrence had higher probability in periods of early and late May, June, and late August, whereas, in early August and late June, the drought hazard are higher. Tongyu County has high drought hazard from May to August so that it should be taken as a key county to be protected. [Conclusion] The results showed that using SVDI to identify and quantify drought is feasible, also drought frequency during crop growing season in Midwest of Jilin Province shows obvious regional traits.

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