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中文摘要：
为量化评估雾霾颗粒物PM2.5的区域人群健康损害,基于2006-2015年上海市地方统计数据,使用暴露反应关系函数计算上海市雾霾健康经济损失及占同年GDP比例,采用Bootstrap信息扩散综合模型分析了健康损失在不同风险水平下的超越概率、期望水平和重现周期,并利用多项式拟合预测了未来5年的健康损失值以及占GDP比例.结果显示上海市PM2.5国家标准健康经济损失最高为2013年的120.89亿元,占GDP比例最大为2015年的4.60‰;目前上海市PM2.5的健康经济损失超过80亿元的概率为56.62%,近10年平均健康损失约94.64亿元,平均占GDP比例约5.42‰,5年内会出现144亿元左右的健康损失,预计2020年损失值达到261.85亿元.上海市PM2.5经济健康损失出现快速波动上升趋势,需要有效措施控制雾霾污染同时设置预警机制应对潜在的突发事件.
英文摘要：
For quantitative evaluation of health damage towards local people of haze particles PM2.5, exposure response function was used to calculate the economic loss of haze health damage in Shanghai and its proportion of GDP based on available data of Shanghai in 2006-2015. The paper analyzed exceeding probability, expectation and recurrence period of different risk levels by using the bootstrap information diffusion comprehensive model, and predicted the economic loss and its share of GDP in the next five years by applying polynomial fitting. Results indicated that the highest loss was 120.89 billion yuan in 2013 under the national standard, and the highest proportion of GDP in 2015 was 4.60‰, and the probability of exceeding 8 billion yuan was 56.62%. Average economic loss reached 94.64 billion yuan in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015, and the average proportion of GDP was 5.42‰. It will happen once or more that the economic loss exceeds 144 billion yuan in next five years. The economic loss in Shanghai is going to exceed 261.85 billion yuan in 2020. Considering that economic loss of haze health damage in Shanghai had risen rapidly, effective measures should be adopted to control pollution, and the warning mechanism is also necessary in case of potential emergence.
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