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中文摘要：
由于受到电力市场环境下多方面不确定性因素的影响,难以准确计算投资输电项目的现金流和内部收益率等关键决策指标,增加了电网投资项目的投资风险和决策难度。基于云理论描述了电网投资项目的现金流的模糊特性,较以往单纯依靠模糊数的方法更加符合决策者的思维判断模式,并充分体现了电网投资建设中不确定因素和模糊集隶属度的随机性。结合实物期权理论,构造了不确定环境下输电项目投资评价的新的方法框架,提出了基于云理论的输电项目实物期权投资决策模型,并以实例证明了该方法的有效性和可行性。
英文摘要：
In electricity markets, transmission expansion projects are influenced by various uncertainties and therefore difficult to obtain accurate calculation of key indices for decision making, such as the cash flow and internal rate of return, which increases the investment risk and complication in decision making. The fuzzy features of cash flow of transmission expansion projects were described based on the cloud theory. In contrast to the traditional application of fuzzy numbers, the cloud theory coincides with the decision-maker＇s judgment better, and completely reflects the fuzziness of the uncertainty and its stochastic membership. On this ground, a new method of investment evaluation for transmission expansion projects was proposed based on real option theory. Furthermore, an investment decision model for transmission expansion based on both the cloud theory and the real option theory was given, and a case study was shown to prove its effectiveness and feasibility.
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