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中文摘要：
准确预测我国未来10年电动汽车的保有量对于调整既定产业政策、实现电动汽车的有序发展合理引导电动汽车上下游产业布局具有重要意义。Bass模型预测新产品扩散时具有能够全面考虑内外部隧素的优势。在综合分析未来10年我国电动汽车的发展规划后，利用Bass模型对我国2020年基准油价和高油价情况下的电动汽车保有量进行了预测。预测结果表明，我国电动汽车在未来10年会有较快的发展剜馊，汽油价格的上涨会促进电动汽车的推广。
英文摘要：
Predicting tile inventory of electric vehlicles aeeuralely for future 10 years in China is signifieant for adjusting relevant established industrial policies, achieving the orderly develnpmenl of electric vehicles, and guiding tile law,at of tile upslream and dnwnslream industries reasonallly. After a comprehensive analysis of the plan tot electric vehicles in future 10 years, the Bass model, which has all advantage in taking full account of lhe internal and external factors in predicling the spread of new products, is used to prediel tile inventory of electric vehMes in China under the condition of the baseline oil price and high oil price in 2020. The resuhs indicate that the electric vehicles will winess a rapid development in the next 10 years and the high oil price can promote the spread of eleetrie vehicles to some extent.
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