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中文摘要：
目的：探索科学、可行的评估吸毒人群规模的方法。方法：应用改进的Delphi法，于2005年12月至2006年3月期间，请北京市禁吸戒毒领域的专业人员对本市滥用海洛因和新型毒品（冰毒、摇头丸、“K”粉）的人群规模分别做出估计。结果：估计2005年12月北京市滥用海洛因人数的中位数是50000（40000-60000），是同期登记在册人数的2．67（2．14-3．21）倍；估计滥用“新型毒品”人数的中位数是50000（30000-95000）。结论：应用改进的Delphi方法在禁吸戒毒领域专业人员中进行毒品滥用情况调查，方法比较科学、易行；虽然存在一些影响调查结果的因素，但随着研究设计的完善，该方法可应用于毒品滥用流行程度评估研究。
英文摘要：
Objective：To explore a scientific and suitable method for estimating the size of drug abusers. Methods：Modified Delphi approach was adopted. During December 2005 to March 2006, experts in the field of drug control and drug medical treatment in Beijing were invited to give an estimation of the size of drug abusers （ using heroin and ＂new type of drugs＂, respectively） in the city of Beijing. Results ：The median of the estimated number of heroin abusers in Beijing in December 2005 was 50 000（40 000-60 000）,which was 2. 67（2. 14-3. 21 ）times as much as that of the registered number in the same period;the median of the estimated number of ＂new type of drugs＂ abusers was 50 000（30 000 - 95 000）. Conclusion ： Application of modified Delphi approach in experts in the field of drug control and drug medical treatment to estimate the size of drug abusers is valid and simple. Although there are some factors that can affect the results of a survey, modified Delphi approach can be used in an estimation of the extent of drug abuse with a better research design.
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