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中文摘要：
考虑到外部冲击有可能导致能源需求和经济增长之间关系的变化，本文基于1953--2000年的数据检测了我国能源需求和GDP之间关系发生结构突变的时机；在此基础上，运用协整技术和误差修正模型分析了我国能源需求和GDP之间的长期均衡和短期动态的关系，建立了我国能源需求模型，并将其与不考虑结构突变的能源需求模型进行比较。比较结果表明：本文所提模型更能准确反映建模样本期间能源需求和GDP之间的关系，具有更高的预测能力。
英文摘要：
Considering the influence of external impacts on the relation between economic growth and energy demand, and based on the data during 1953-2000, this paper analyzes the occasion in which the structural break of the relation between economic growth and energy demand in China will be lead to. And it studies the relation of long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic between energy demand and GDP in China with the co-integration theory and the error correction mode on this basis,and establishes the energy demand model. Compared with the model with not considering structural break, the proposed model can reflect more accurately the relation between energy demand and GDP in the modeling sample period,and has the greater ability in prediction.
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